Premier League Team Preview #16: Manchester United

In this series, each Premier League club will be previewed from an FPL perspective, analysing their predicted lineup, short and long-term fixtures and key FPL prospects before a final verdict is given. Please note that predicted lineups are based on existing players and signings close to completion at the time of writing.

Predicted Lineup

At the time of writing this article and from the perspective of a fan, Manchester United have had what can only be described as a disappointing transfer window. Fred, Diogo Dalot and Lee Grant have signed so far, which is far below what many of us were expecting at the start of the window. Things will be greatly improved if a deal can be concluded with Tottenham for centre-back Toby Alderweireld, however, left back and right-wing still stand out as positions that are in need of reinforcement. Lee Grant and Diogo Dalot will not be first team regulars so the only transfers that affect the starting 11 would be Fred and Alderwiereld, which if we play with the 4-3-3 system as shown above, seems like a criminal underinvestment when you consider how our rivals are significantly strengthening in the required positions.

David De Gea remains one of the best goalkeepers in the world and will play every game where he is available to (aside from possibly missing the last day of the season if the Golden Glove award is already decided). In defence, Valencia will remain the first choice right back with Dalot as his understudy eating into some of his game time as the season progresses. If Alderweireld signs, then our strongest centre-back pairing would be him next to Bailly, however, the fact we have Smalling, Jones and Lindelof coupled with the fact that Bailly is very injury prone, suggests that centre-back will continue to be a rotation minefield. Left-back will have a similar situation, where Luke Shaw will get a run of games at the start of the season before having his place put back under threat as soon as Ashley Young returns from his extended World Cup break and is up to match fitness.

If the 4-3-3 formation is used, the midfield 3 will all be assured of starts more often than not, with £52 million signing Fred slotting in alongside Paul Pogba and Nemanja Matic. Ander Herrera will see some starting 11 game time when the fixture schedule starts to become more clustered, but I expect the previous mentioned 3 to be the most common starters.

Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku are Manchester United’s main potential goalscorers and therefore will start at every opportunity as their contributions will be vital this season if they are to close the points and goals scored gap with Manchester City. The right-wing is more difficult to predict as we do not have a natural right-winger at the club. I expect Jesse Lingard or Juan Mata to play that role for the majority of the season if we haven’t signed a right winger by the end of deadline day, but it is also possible that Marcus Rashford steps in and plays here on occasion.

It should be noted that Jose Mourinho utilised a 3-5-2 formation in various matches across pre-season before reverting to 4-3-3 in the final match against Bayern Munich. Personally, I think this was due to the amount of players missing and finding a system that fit the available players, however, there is always the potential that he does stick with 3-5-2 and if he does, I think it would greatly increase our chances of success this season as well as making some of our players more appealing FPL assets. The 3-5-2 formation suits the players in our squad, allowing Sanchez and Lukaku to play up front together with width being provided by the wing-backs who also protect our often liable centre-backs, with the same 3 playing in midfield.

Fixtures

Short-Term

Man Utd have once again been given a favourable extended start to the season, only facing 2 of last season’s top 6 in their first 11 matches. This makes starting with a Manchester United defender a sensible tactic due to potential for clean sheets over this period and the high ownership of players such as David De Gea. It may be worth using the first few gameweeks to assess the formation in use and how players such as Alexis Sanchez are performing before investing in Manchester United attacking options.

Long-Term

There does not appear to be any period of the season where Man Utd have a terrible run of matches, however, what does stand out is their kind end to the season. Between gameweek 32-38, Chelsea (H) is their only fixture against a ‘top 6’ side and this run includes additional home fixtures against Watford, West Ham and Cardiff. If they continue their strong defensive record from last season and show any sign of attacking potential, Man Utd could provide some great options with good fixtures for double gameweeks at the end of the season.

Defensive Prospects

Manchester United finished last season with the most clean sheets in the league (19) demonstrating a clear defensive capability. Mourinho’s style of not doing anything to potentially risk losing the match results in often very boring matches where Man Utd score and then stop attacking and hold the lead. This is not great from a fan’s or neutral’s perspective who wants to enjoy the beautiful game played at its best, however, it greatly contributes to the number of clean sheets being kept. I do not see Mourinho’s style changing this season and therefore I personally think that owning a Manchester United defender/goalkeeper is an extremely advisable strategy as their style points in the direction of regular clean sheets.

Due to his remarkable score of 172 points last season, De Gea has seen a price increase to £6.0m (£0.5m more than the next most expensive keepers). This has led many FPL managers to look elsewhere, however, I still firmly believe that De Gea is a player not to be ignored. Man Utd kept a clean sheet in exactly half of the games they played last season (19/38) and played large chunks of the season with Chris Smalling and Phil Jones at centre-back. If Eric Bailly can stay fit for more of this season compared to last and Toby Alderweirled is signed, their defence is only getting stronger and I see no reason why these numbers cannot be replicated. If you can keep 19 clean sheets with Smalling and Jones as regular starters, then you know your tactical system must be made out of clean sheet flavoured magic fairy dust.

The reason I am so fond of De Gea as a way into the United defence is the uncertainty surrounding the other positions. Valencia (£6.5m) is overpriced and will likely see less minutes this season with Dalot’s arrival and the rest of the back line doesn’t yet have a completely ‘nailed on to start’ player in it. Shaw (£5.0m) may be a cheap option for the first few weeks but it would hardly be surprising if Young (£6.0m) took his place as soon as he was fit to do so. Then at centre-back, any one of Smalling, Jones, Lindelof, Bailly and potentially Alderwiereld and Rojo as well could start. If he signs, I fully expect Alderweireld (£6.0m) to be a regular starter and should be partnered next to Eric Bailly (£5.5m), but the latter’s injury record makes it seem unlikely he’ll ever get an extended run in the team. Therefore, De Gea is currently the only United defensive option who is nailed on to start every game. Additionally, if you go down a price bracket to the £5.5m keepers, the options that stand out are Ederson and Alisson. However, it is more than likely that we will want to field as many Manchester City and Liverpool attackers or attacking defenders as we can and having a goalkeeper from one of those teams would restrict our ability to do so. This all comes together to suggest that De Gea is the best long-term Man Utd defensive option and his current ownership of 29% demonstrates his popularity in the game at this time.

Attacking Prospects

To start the season, I believe that no Manchester United attacker is worth investing in but I also think that has the potential to change after a few gameweeks.

Firstly, within the main midfield 3, Pogba (£8.0m) is the only player that stands out as a potential FPL option. Fred (£6.0m) and Matic (£5.0m) are predominantly defensive minded players who will therefore offer little attacking threat, significantly limiting their appeal to FPL Managers.

Although he was not a largely owned asset for the majority of last season due to injury and a period of time where he became out of favour and lost form, the table above shows that Pogba’s minutes per goal involvement stat was better than many of the premium assets on offer, including popular FPL picks, De Bruyne and Eriksen. To be honest, I was somewhat surprised when I realised Pogba registered 6 goals and 13 assists last season as I expected this figure to be lower. This stat coupled with his final figures from last season, suggests to me that Pogba could offer terrific value at some point this season if he can find his form and we start scoring more goals. If he can manage 6 goals and 13 assists in just 2145 minutes in a season largely considered a poor one, the potential seems endless. As well as this, the signing of Fred and the 4-3-3 system could benefit Pogba greatly as he will be the most attacking of the 3 midfielders and could play some of the matches against weaker opposition in an almost ‘number 10’ role. It is important to note, due to France winning the World Cup and Pogba’s participation throughout the tournament and in the final, he will not be ready to start the opening matches of the season. This will give us time to assess how Man Utd are performing before potentially bringing Pogba in for a player who may have become obsolete by that stage such as Bernardo Silva (who is expected to start the early matches for Manchester City).

Although being our main striker and playing 2866 minutes last season, Romelu Lukaku (£11.0m) only managed 16 goals, an admittedly disappointing return compared to Harry Kane’s 30, Mo Salah’s 32 and Sergio Aguero’s 21 (who played 906 minutes less than Lukaku). Lukaku has joined up with the Manchester United squad in the last few days so it seems unlikely he will start on Friday against Leicester City, however, I fully expect him to be ready for Brighton away the following weekend. So straight away it’s not worth investing in Lukaku and this trend may continue throughout the season. I simply cannot find a reason to spend £11.0m on Lukaku in a defensive Man Utd team when Sergio Aguero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang at Manchester City and Arsenal respectively are at the same price. I think that both of these players will score more goals than Lukaku, so I see very little use for Lukaku this season to be brutally honest. Aubameyang joined Arsenal in January and ended up with only 6 goals less than Lukaku, having played 1,810 fewer minutes. Some people may be put off going for Aguero due to the constant risk of Jesus starting ahead of him and may plump for Lukaku instead for the assured regular starts. However, the stats show that Aguero is able to outscore Lukaku even having played significantly fewer minutes and I think this trend will continue again this season and especially for their incredible GW2-7 run, even if Aguero misses 1 or even 2 games, I still think he will outscore Lukaku over that period. Unless Lukaku finds some miraculous form that trumps both Aguero and Aubameyang, Lukaku is a player that will not be in my team at any point this season.

Right-wing is a position at Manchester United where any random generator could have as good a guess as me at telling you who was going to start. Mata (£6.5m), Lingard (£7.0m) and even potentially Rashford (£7.5m) and Martial (£7.5m) will all contest this position and will share the minutes across the season. I expect Lingard and Mata to be most commonly utilised in this position, however, the fact we cannot call who will start means that all the players mentioned above go straight into the ‘avoid’ category for me. We are desperately crying out for a new signing to come in and take that spot, but that is becoming increasingly unlikely as the last few days of the transfer window tick by, meaning it will remain an ill-equipped position that continues to be used for rotation.

Finally, Alexis Sanchez (£10.5m) is one to wait and see rather than start with in my opinion. Manchester United fans and FPL managers who scout pre-season formations and form, including myself, became extremely excited by the prospect of Sanchez operating as a striker in a 3-5-2 formation. However, for the last game, Mourinho went back to the expected 4-3-3, sending Sanchez back out to the left-wing. The change in Sanchez’s performance levels between the formations was immense. Whilst playing as a striker he was linking up well with the players around him, creating chances and also having more shots at goals (scoring twice), however, when he moved back to left wing he struggled to get involved in the game and was required to do a lot more work defensively. To warrant paying £10.5m for Sanchez (at least £1m more than alternatives: Mane, Sane, Mahrez, Eriksen) he would have to be playing up front for me because that is what gives him something the others don’t have to provide a reason for a £1.0/1.5m more expensive price. With him on the wing, he has nothing extra to offer as of yet to justify spending more funds on than the previously mentioned players. When we are so desperately trying to balance our squads to accommodate £13.0m Mo Salah, this seems like a risky extra £1.0m to be paying when the alternatives are likely to provide the same, if not more points. I would not recommend starting with him but he is certainly one to monitor if Mourinho decides to go with the 3-5-2 formation.

Final Verdict

In Summary…

Man Utd defensive cover is something you should strongly consider right from the start of the season.
De Gea is the best long-term secure route into this defence.
The right-wing position is one to avoid in terms of FPL assets.
Pogba could provide great value when he returns.
Lukaku currently has no FPL appeal.
Sanchez should only be considered if playing as a striker in a 3-5-2 formation.

Written by Nick Pasquet – @FFAnalysts_Nick on Twitter

Other articles in this series:

#1: Arsenal

#2: Watford

#3: Liverpool

#4: Huddersfield

#5: Tottenham

#6: Everton

#7: West Ham

#8: Brighton

#9: Manchester City

#10: Newcastle