Premier League Team Preview #14: Southampton

In this series, each Premier League club will be previewed from an FPL perspective, analysing their predicted lineup, short and long-term fixtures and key FPL prospects before a final verdict is given. Please note that predicted lineups are based on existing players and signings close to completion at the time of writing.

This instalment is written by Southampton fan @FPL_ElStatto, a top 25k FPL finisher in each of the last two seasons who has also recently started a blog discussing topics such as his exciting new Survivor mini-league.

Predicted Lineup

Note: Cédric Soares has yet to feature in pre-season due to his exploits at the World Cup with Portugal and a recent stomach bug. Therefore it is extremely unlikely that the 15.7% selected defender will start in Gameweek 1.

2017/18 Season

Last season was one of real disappointment for Southampton. After the success of the previous year’s top 10 finishes and competing in the “best of the rest” section of the table, the club almost fell out the Premier League door, saved only by a change of management and a last minute run.

The club’s business model is well known and well publicised – bring in hungry players, improve them and then sell them for the highest price possible to Liverpool. Last season was no exception with Virgil Van Dijk finally getting his move to Liverpool in the January window. After taking a firm stance in the summer window, the club tried to make a point and refused to allow him to leave, after all he had just signed a new bumper 5 year deal in January, but ultimately holding onto someone (our captain) who didn’t want to be there didn’t work. It didn’t allow the club to reinvest the money in the summer window and caused a knock-on effect in the dressing room too.

Hopefully lessons have been learned and the almost relegation season has been a wake-up call to both the board and the squad that things needed to improve.

Mark Hughes, who managed to pull off the great escape for the club was given a permanent contract early in the summer to bring some stability to the club. He seemed to have got a reaction from the players that had been underperforming previously in the season so it was hard not to give him the job full time.

Transfer Movement

Dušan Tadić has been the only first team member to be sold, going back to Holland to join Ajax. Tadić was often seen as an FPL troll with his inconsistent performances, meaning managers never knew when to bring him in/out of their squads. His creativity and assists will be greatly missed, and someone else will need to step up and deliver now.

A few expensive failures have left on loans, with Sofiane Boufal joining Celta Vigo and Guido Carrillo moving on after only joining in January, going to Leganes for the season.

For once, signings were made early and have so far addressed a few issues from within the squad from last season. Stuart Armstrong has arrived from Celtic whilst Mohamed Elyounoussi has joined from FC Basel. Both of these will hopefully add some creativity into the midfield and both have an eye for goal. Priced at £5.5M and £6.5M in FPL respectively, they could both be an option for your squads, although based on pre-season games so far I think Armstrong will settle into the Premier League quicker and could be a great option for your 4^th or 5^th midfield slot.

Angus Gunn has arrived from Man City, a signing that took many supporters by surprise. Highly rated and already an England U21 player, he has been brought in to provide competition to Alex McCarthy and push him for the starting spot. Fraser Forster will now be someone they will look to move out (probably on loan due to wages) and he hasn’t featured in the past few pre-season match squads.

Finally, Jannik Vestergaard has come in and will be our main centre back for the season. The big Dane (6’7) will provide a commanding presence in both penalty boxes.

2018/19 Setup

It looks like Mark Hughes is going to stick with the 3 at the back set up which brought him the short-term success at the end of last season. McCarthy is now the definite number 1 after dislodging Forster last season.

In defence, we now have 5 centre backs competing for the 3 spots. Vestergaard and Hoedt seem to be 2 of the 3, which leaves Yoshida, Stephens and Bednarek fighting it out for the last spot. Bednarek has been starting in the friendlies recently but Yoshida has only just arrived back from his break after the World Cup so it’s still unknown who will take that last place. I can see the final spot being more of a rotation depending on the opposition and the needs required to combat them.

The wing backs are easier to know with Cédric on the right and Bertrand on the left providing the main width to the team. Bertrand has been impressive in the friendlies so far and will provide real assist potential if he continues to play this far forward. Targett played the 2^nd half in midweek at right wing back, despite being left footed and set up 2 of the 3 goals, so he might hold that spot until Cédric is back up to fitness as there isn’t a natural back-up right wing-back.

The setup for the remainder of the side is more unknown and is likely to change depending on the opposition. Whether it’ll be 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 is still unclear with both options being used so far over the summer. Romeu, Lemina, Davis, Armstrong, Hojbjerg and JWP are all fighting to fit into the middle of midfield – there isn’t a shortage of options, just maybe a shortage of skill.

Offensively, Southampton are still probably one forward light and hopefully this will be addressed before the season starts. If 3 are played up top then it will see Redmond and Elyounoussi providing the width with Austin or Gabbiadini as the main centre-forward. If it’s 2 up top then the wide players will be replaced with Long coming into consideration playing off the main forward. Perhaps the best insight about the likely preferred option will come in the final friendly on Saturday against Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Fixtures

The opening set of fixtures have been kind to Southampton, avoiding many of the Big 6, with only Liverpool away (GW6) and Chelsea home (GW8) in their opening 10 games. These 10 games will really set what type of season the club will have – will it be another relegation battle or back to being a side challenging for the best of the rest title.

Home form was a real issue last season (just 19 points) and the main reason for the relegation battle, but with Burnley, Leicester and Brighton as the first 3 home games, there is a real chance to correct that from the off.

Away from home are visits to Everton, Crystal Palace and Liverpool. Everton are in a little bit of transition so far and haven’t had the best of the pre season results (excluding the 22-0 farce), so it could be a good time to play them before they are all settled in to their new setup under Marco Silva.

FPL Prospects (Defensive and Attacking)

After the poor season last season the FPL pricing gurus have been a little kinder this season and could provide a few options if you are looking at the cheaper end of the spectrum. It’s unlikely you are going to find a consistent points returner within the squad so it’ll be very much dipping in and out when fixtures and form dictate.

McCarthy £4.5M

First choice keeper, with a kind set of fixtures. 52 points from 18 games (4 clean sheets) last season sees him average just under 3 points per game. A good option if you play the 2 rotating keeper approach to FPL.

Rotating McCarthy with Fabianski would result in one of the two goalkeepers having a home match in every gameweek this season.

Cédric £4.5M

The most picked Southampton player so far at 15.9% ownership. Largely a result of him being £4.5M which makes a great option for a cheap defender pick as his wing back role will see him attacking a lot more and hopefully picking up a few assists.

Stat: Cedric created the joint second most big chances amongst defenders from Gameweek 20-38.

Bertrand £5.0M

Outscored Cédric by 18 points last season which explains the slightly higher price. He is captain and after missing out on the World Cup squad I think he’ll have a point to prove there too this season. Like Cédric, Bertrand will provide good assist option for his wing back position, having amassed 5 assists in each of his past two seasons.

Armstrong £5.5M

New signing from Celtic so no FPL history to compare against, which makes him a bit of a punt. Likes to shoot and scored plenty for Celtic from outside the box. Watching pre-season games, he is operating as the more attacking option from the centre midfielder spots, although is a box to box player. Was brought in as Southampton have struggled to score goals from their midfield in past seasons, so hopefully Armstrong will solve this problem.

To summarise:

Southampton will line up with 3 centre-backs and wing-backs but the 4 players in front of them are less clear as both 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 formations have been used during pre-season.
McCarthy, Cédric (when he returns to full fitness), Bertrand and Armstrong will be both nailed-on and FPL friendly assets. If Charlie Austin is a guaranteed starter, he could come into the reckoning too.

Other articles in this series:

#1: Arsenal

#2: Watford

#3: Liverpool

#4: Huddersfield

#5: Tottenham

#6: Everton

#7: West Ham

#8: Brighton

#9: Manchester City

#10: Newcastle

#11: Cardiff