In this series, we will answer the main community questions that arise from one gameweek moving into the next, doing our best to dissect the information available to provide comprehensively analysed answers.
@lonesomepundit asks: Best striker under £9.5m? Money no object – go low or perhaps take a stab at Vardy/Lacazette?
If money is no object, Lacazette appears to be the standout option over the next few weeks. He has either scored or assisted in 14 of his 21 appearances at the Emirates and that two in three ratio suggests we should expect a few attacking returns in home matches against Everton, Watford and Leicester between Gameweek 6 and 9.
Meanwhile, the rise of James Maddison as an FPL asset, both in terms of direct goal involvements (three in five games) and recent underlying numbers at a £2.3m saving on Vardy all but rules the recently retired England striker out of contention.
However, the £2.5m saved by opting for Zaha, Arnautovic or Mitrovic arguably provides better value for money in that second forward spot. All three are unquestionably the talisman in their respective sides which allows them to be directly involved in a greater percentage of their team’s goals. Given that Lacazette has only started two Premier League games this season, this is a bit of a harsh comparison on him but he has either been the scorer or creator of 40% of his team’s goals, compared to Mitrovic’s 71%, Zaha’s 75% and Arnautovic’s 80%. Arsenal will score more goals than these sides over the season but the price difference and those higher involvement rates (although Lacazette’s should increase slightly as he starts more games) just swing it in favour of the cheaper options.
@hayve90 asked a similar question about Giroud as an alternative to Zaha for just £0.8m more. Once again, I would favour Zaha in this circumstance given how involved he is in Crystal Palace’s attacking play compared to Giroud being more of a facilitator to get the best out of Hazard. In addition, there is always a chance that Morata comes back into the and buying players that you plan to transfer out in the future is something to try and avoid.
@TheFPLPrince asks: Does Hazard playing under Sarri make him a more attractive option than under previous managers?
Hazard has been in electric form so far this season, leading the way for FPL points, having either scored or assisted in all of his matches so far this season. Maurizio Sarri has also commented that Hazard “can score 30-35 goals” if he remains higher up the pitch rather than dropping deep to create chances for others. Clearly Hazard’s role in this Chelsea team is more advanced than in Conte or Mourinho’s sides and these are positive signs for his FPL prospects.
Hazard’s five goals from his last five shots on target does suggest that regression is on the way but it is worth stressing that the stats don’t tell the whole story. An in-form player will often outperform what is expected of them, like Jamie Vardy has done in previous seasons, scoring from his only chance on many occasions. Equally, a slightly underperforming player like Salah, who has also managed five shots on target in the last three gameweeks, scoring once, will not necessarily start matching Hazard because confidence often brings goals, as we saw with Salah himself last season.
In answer to the question, Hazard has perhaps been fortunate to score as many points as he has during the last few gameweeks, however his more advanced role indicated by Sarri is the key piece of information that makes him a more attractive option this season. He is getting very close to must-have territory.
@FPL_JP asks: Best £4.5m goalkeeper?
At £4.5m, there are eight possible goalkeeper options that are assured of their place in the medium-term and these are Begovic, Ryan, Hart, Hennessey, McCarthy, Foster, Fabianski and Patricio.
Just by watching the teams play, Fabianski and Begovic are two goalkeepers that I just could not trust to keep a clean sheet due to the more attack-minded philosophies of Pellegrini and Howe. This immediately rules the pair out of contention.
After just five gameweeks, it is difficult to decipher between the remaining options but I would also rule out Ryan and Foster by virtue of keeping zero and one clean sheets and being fourth and sixth out of the remaining six for saves. Whilst Hart has only managed one clean sheet thus far, he sits top of saves with 26 amongst all goalkeepers leaving cause for optimism.
If I had to make a judgement between the remaining four (Patricio, Hart, Hennessey and McCarthy), I would opt for Patricio given that Wolves limited their first two opponents this season to just six shots apiece and they have since conceded just once.
For those opting for two £4.5m options as @FPLeLclasico asked, Patricio alongside one of Hart, Hennessey and McCarthy would be my preference.
@owenteahan82 asks: Is it definitely time to sell Salah after this game week if he doesn’t perform?
This is more of a question for Gameweek 7, however I do think we need to be making contingency plans for potentially selling Salah, which could impact Gameweek 6 transfers, making it relevant for discussion ahead of this week.
Whether you choose to sell Salah comes down to individual teams. As a non-Hazard owner, I would be more inclined to sell Salah in the near future, whereas those with Hazard, Salah and Aguero or Lukaku already, supported by good budget options would not necessarily need to rush into selling him.
Another factor to be considered is the array of strong budget options which weakens the case for selling Salah. As mentioned in the previous question, there are at least four good budget goalkeeper options in Patricio, Hart, Hennessey and McCarthy. In defence it is a similar story with Doherty, Duffy, Bennett, Holebas, Shaw, Wan-Bissaka, Alexander-Arnold etc and the same is true in forward positions. A team containing a premium striker, Hazard and Salah is easily achievable due to these options.
Given their goalscoring potential, a Liverpool attacker is needed so it comes down to what that £3-3.5m can fund by opting for Mane or Firmino. If that cash saved allows significant upgrades elsewhere then I would consider shifting Salah in the near future regardless of whether he delivers the goods against Southampton, given the appeal of Aguero, Mane and Hazard as alternatives for the captaincy.
@ItaliaFpl asks: I have got Mendy and Aguero. Third Man City asset?
Sterling’s price of £11.0m rules him out of contention for those that own Aguero on the premise that only one can be captained and holding a player at that price that will never be captained does not seem worth it. As mentioned earlier, there looks to be great value in the £4.5m goalkeeper bracket and that coupled with fixtures against Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United in the next seven gameweeks makes a defensive double-up risky.
Sane and Mahrez have not had enough pitch time to suggest they are worth investing in, which leaves just Bernardo and David Silva. Both have managed nine goal attempts with four hitting the target. However, David Silva’s 16 attempted assists is double that of Bernardo, whilst he has also outscored the Portuguese international for FPL points despite playing 31 minutes fewer. With this in mind, David Silva edges ahead of the other City options but only in the short-term given that Kevin De Bruyne is due to return in mid-November.
Written by @FPL_Guidance
The Fantasy Football Analysts 